Stop moping over Hasina’s exit, and start acting to consolidate a new politics in Bangladesh

New Delhi's instinct would be to mistrust and oppose the movement that ousted India's ally in Dhaka, but that would be a mistake

Stop moping over Hasina, help Bangladesh consolidate democratic politics

Come and see the blood in the streets / Come and see / The blood in the streets / Come and see the blood / In the streets — so wrote Pablo Neruda, explaining why his poetry did not speak of dreams and leaves and the great volcanoes of his native land. India’s foreign policy establishment does not, of course, think of dreams and leaves and namby-pamby bits of metaphysics, when it comes to policy towards a neighbour with which India shares a 4,000 km border. It thinks of national security. It thinks of Bangladesh offering ready refuge to militant groups in the Northeast till Sheikh Hasina put an end to it, of Islamist forces ready to do the bidding of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, of constant Chinese efforts to suborn South Asian governments, and of the Hasina government’s ability to control these tendencies. It is pre-disposed to see any political formation that takes office after overthrowing the Hasina regime with hostility and suspicion. This would be a big mistake.

The Hasina regime was autocratic, jailed leaders who opposed her and suppressed democracy, using volunteers associated with the ruling Awami League, banded together in different organisations, to act as stormtroopers who mopped up dissent on the streets. When democratic protest is disallowed, disaffection is bottled up, keeps brewing, and builds up pressure, until, finally, it comes out in an explosion spattering destructive projectiles of disorder. Bangladeshis have come to see the fall of the Hasina regime as their Second Liberation, no less significant than the first one from Pakistan, which India helped materialise. India must build bridges with the new regime, build on shared concerns and infrastructure projects that build prosperity in Bangladesh and India, and encourage the forces of democracy. It is imperative for India to resolutely deny fodder to Islamists who seek to use anti-India sentiments to extend their own influence.

We used to resent American reliance on Pakistan to serve as its proxy in South Asia, despite its authoritarian, quasi-theocratic set-up, and still deride, in private, American support for undemocratic Saudi Arabia and Egypt, even as Washington preaches the virtues of democracy around the world. India’s support for Sheikh Hasina was self-centred and self-serving like American policy towards dictators, oblivious to what that regime did to the domestic polity.

With microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus heading the interim government that prepares to give shape to the post-Hasina political order in Bangladesh, a new opportunity has opened up to reforge India’s ties with Bangladesh, and with its political actors. It is significant that Yunus has called, besides for zero net carbon emissions, zero concentration of wealth, and zero unemployment, for a new political leadership, preferably from among the ranks of the students who led the protests that finally ousted Sheikh Hasina. He has not directly called for zero Islamic radicalism, but he has called for a new kind of politics that would promote democracy and prosperity in Bangladesh. And he sought cooperation with India.

There are Islamist elements in Bangladesh, circulating videos that threaten to demolish all Hindu temples in the country. But they do not represent the mainstream opinion. If a discourse gathers strength in India that identifies the emerging polity of Bangladesh as communal and anti-India, that would hinder, rather than help, democratic forces trying to assert themselves in Bangladesh’s turbulent politics. The ruling party in India would do well to rein in its social media warriors, as they give in to their natural proclivity, in relation to developments in Bangladesh.

The rate of unemployment in Bangladesh is not high, by official estimates: it was 3.1% in 2023. The percentage of young men not in employment, education or training was just 10.9% in 2022. But the official definition of being employed in Bangladesh is rather distorted — those who have worked for even one hour in the prior to the survey are considered to be employed. Like in India, there is a huge premium on public sector jobs, with their certainty of tenure, decent remuneration and pensions. And the 30% quota for descendants of those who participated in Bangladesh’s liberation struggle was a huge source of frustration for youth looking to be recruited into the Bangladesh Civil Service. Protests against the quota — abolished by the Hasina government in 2018, reinstated in June by a high court order, and diluted by a Supreme Court order to just 7% late in July — triggered the recent spate of protests. aH

Among graduates, 28% were unemployed in 2022, estimated to be around 8 lakh of the total unemployed population, according to the Labour Force Survey 2022 by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). There is an additional dimension to widespread dissatisfaction on the job front in Bangladesh. While economic growth has been robust — the GDP rose from $365.01 billion (PPP, constant international dollars 2021) in 2000 to $1.41 trillion in 2023, yielding a compound annual growth rate a shade over 6% over this period — the growth was driven by the private sector, and the jobs that were created were not of high quality. Further, women account for a large proportion of the workforce in the garment industry. Bangladesh’s female work participation rate is in excess of 42%, the highest in South Asia. As a result of many women acquiring an independent earning of their own, traditional gender relations are undergoing change in Bangladesh. While this is immensely beneficial to not just women but to society in general, it adds to the competition for jobs and also adds an additional dimension to insecurity among unemployed men.

Investment in Bangladesh by Indian companies, for example, in the power sector, is of a kind that facilitates economic growth and job creation. It makes sense to highlight this point, and to encourage additional investment flows by Indian companies to that country. An offer by India to help set up an Indian Institute of Technology in Bangladesh, complete with an incubator for startups, would help generate hope for the future and goodwill towards India. The aspirational middle class could countervail Islamist malcontents.

The point is for New Delhi to see the blood in Bangladesh streets, stop moping over the loss of an ally in Dhaka, and start fashioning one out of the new regime that would come up in its place.